Sep 21, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez (55) and catcher J.T. Realmuto (10) talk as they take the field for action against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports Bill Streicher
I started writing about the Phillies online in 2013, and really covering the during the 2020 season. In that time, I'm hard-pressed to remember a crazier offseason week than what the Phillies experienced these past seven days.
With that in mind, here are three thoughts with the dust having settled on multiple fronts this week.
A big storyline for the remainder of the offseason will be whether the Phillies need to reconsider their policy regarding opt-out clauses.
General manager Preston Mattingly revealed earlier this offseason that the Phillies don't do opt-out clauses in contracts.
"When you talk about specific free agents ... especially the reliever market, it feels like it moves really quickly ... and I think a lot of the teams have guys evaluated the same. And like you mentioned, they have them at that one-year pact, or maybe it's two, and I think you try and separate yourself in different ways. I think you can talk about potentially doing opt-outs. That's something that the Philadelphia Phillies don't do, so we're kind of up front with that with guys."
In the past 36 hours, arguably the top two available free agents this offseason signed short-term megadeals that include multiple opt outs.
Thursday evening, Kyle Tucker agreed to a four-year/$260 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, a pact that gives him the chance to opt out after both the second and third seasons of his deal.
Friday morning, Bo Bichette came to terms on a three-year/$126 million contract with the New York Mets, a deal that he can opt out of in either of the next two offseasons.
Are the Phillies missing the boat by not being willing to offer these type of contracts? Yes, but their strategy may be proven right in the long run.
To sign either Tucker or Bichette, the Phillies would have needed to surrender their second and fifth-round picks in the 2026 MLB Draft, along with $1 million international bonus pool money, because both declined qualifying offers. For reference, Jimmy Rollins was a second-round pick in 1996, and Ryan Howard was a fifth-round selection in 2001. Obviously, those are extreme examples, but they do serve as a reminder of what these picks can turn into. Also, $1 million is a sizable chunk of international bonus pool money.
Obviously, if Bichette had been willing to take the seven-year/$200 million deal that Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Phillies offered him, you give up those things without thinking twice for a 27-year-old that's led the AL in hits twice.
However, the deal that the Mets gave Bichette only really guarantees one season, because if Bichette has a big year in 2026, he's almost certainly going to opt out and return to the market next winter, when he'll be ineligible for the qualifying offer. If he leaves in free agency, the Mets will have surrendered a second-round pick, a fifth-round pick and $1 million in international bonus pool money for one season of Bichette. It's exactly what the Boston Red Sox did for 114 regular-season games of Alex Bregman, who opted out of the final two years of his three-year/$120 million deal this offseason and left to sign with the Chicago Cubs.
The Phillies actually did give Jake Arrieta an opt-out clause after the second campaign in the three-year/$75 million contract he signed with them in March of 2018, though it wasn't a traditional opt out. The Phillies still held the power, because if Arrieta opted out, they could have guaranteed two extra years onto his deal, preventing him from becoming a free agent.
Perhaps the Phillies do need to rethink their stance on opt-out clauses. If Bichette had wanted an opt out after the fourth season of a seven-year deal, that would have been a reasonable discussion. If Bryce Harper had — as Scott Boras pushed him to — insisted on an opt-out clause somewhere in the middle of his 13-year deal, it would have been stupid to blow up a deal over including that.
But if there is an organizational belief that one guaranteed year isn't worth greatly limiting your ability to draft and acquire international talent, that's not unreasonable.
Almost exactly five years ago, the Phillies re-signed J.T. Realmuto to a five-year/$115.5 million contract, sending their fans into a state of jubilation. At that time, there was a real fear that the NL East-rival Mets would sign away Realmuto, who was baseball's best catcher.
Ironically, Realmuto reportedly agreed to a three-year/$45 million deal with the Phillies this time around within a couple hours of the Mets swiping away one of this year's top free agents in Bichette.
There was much less excitement for Realmuto's return half a decade later.
At the outset of the offseason, I projected on Bleacher Report that Realmuto would return to the Phillies on a three-year//$45 million deal. I say that not to pat myself on the back, but to point out that this deal seemed reasonable back in November.
However, as the offseason progressed, there seemed to be a lack of other suitors pushing the Phillies. It leads you to wonder whether the Phillies bid against themselves to bring Realmuto back on this deal. Was there another team willing to guarantee Realmuto a third season? If so, was the offer at $15 million per season with an additional $5 million in annual incentives? Did a contender make this offer?
Realmuto is arguably already the greatest catcher in franchise history, and he continues to be excellent at throwing out would-be basestealers. Pitchers and coaches constantly rave about his pregame preparation and ability to guide them through an outing. There is still value in Realmuto, without a doubt.
At the same time, Realmuto will turn 35 shortly before Opening Day. He continues to take on an incredible workload, as he caught 1,151 1/3 innings last year. But he did so while posting a .700 OPS. His fielding run value — a metric that accounts for throwing, blocking, framing, arm and range — dropped to minus-7, as opposed to 15 in 2022, when he won a Gold Glove.
It may have required holding firm longer — and uncomfortable uncertainty with Spring Training opening in less than a month — but it's hard not to feel like the Phillies caved in negotiations with Realmuto after Bichette didn't go their way.
It was such a crazy week for the Phillies that losing Suárez — who will likely have a spot on the club's Wall of Fame one day — kind of feels like an afterthought.
That's partially because it never felt like the Phillies were going to make a real effort to retain Suárez. Even without him, they have the chance to have one of baseball's best rotations in 2026. That made giving Suárez — who has been on the injured list with a back-related ailment in three of the last four seasons — anything like the five-year/$130 million deal that the Boston Red Sox did a non-starter. The Phillies will now collect a compensatory pick after the fourth round of the 2026 MLB Draft for losing Suárez, who declined a qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason.
But even if you can argue that the Phillies probably made the right decision for their franchise by not making a risky long-term investment in Suárez, don't get it twisted — they just let a baller out the door.
Everyone remembers Suárez closing out the 2022 NL pennant, or taking down five innings as the bulk arm at Dodger Stadium in Game 3 of the 2025 NLDS, the only playoff victory for the Phillies this past October. But there's so many more amazing moments from Suárez. He got two crucial outs in relief in Game 1 of the 2022 World Series, helping the Phillies to come back from a 5-0 deficit to beat the Astros in Houston. Despite having nothing physically and walking four, Suárez pitched 4 1/3 shutout innings at Citi Field facing elimination in Game 4 of the 2024 NLDS.
After Ranger Suárez closed out an NL Pennant clinching win in October of 2022, I tried to take a picture of him. I accidentally took a video.
pic.twitter.com/egbClNBIBL
Suárez wasn't great in Game 7 of the 2023 NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing six hits and three runs over 4 1/3 in a season-ending loss. Despite that, I'll always wonder what would have happened if the Phillies had been able to force a Game 7 in the 2022 World Series in Houston, because they would have had Suárez — who leaves a 1.48 career postseason ERA — on the mound.
Beyond that, there's an energy and coolness that Suárez provides both on the mound and in the clubhouse that's contagious, and was noticeably absent at times the past few years when he wasn't healthy.
Look, Suárez's average fastball velocity dropped to 91.3 mph in 2025, as opposed to 93.4 mph as recently as 2023. He's never been a guy that seems to be in particularly great shape. All these are reasons to be skeptical of how the 30-year-old's five-year deal will age.
But regardless of what happens in Boston, Suárez was a damn good Phillie. And his departure perhaps ups the ante for the Phillies to see this spring if they can prevent themselves from being in a similar spot with Jesús Luzardo next offseason.
